In 2025, the sale of Heavy-duty truck is expected to decrease. The global economy is still uncertain, and things like rising fuel prices, supply chain problems, and changed customer needs contribute to this weak attitude. Because of this, experts and truck manufacturers are ready for a decline, which can affect production and jobs in the industry.
Studies show that factors such as inflation on carbon emissions and strict rules assess fleet owners and logistics companies to buy new trucks. In addition, with the increase of electric and hydrogen-operated trucks, businesses have difficulty deciding whether to live with traditional trucks or invest in new, more expensive technology.
It is important to understand these changes to all -producers, fleet operators, and investors in the heavy truck industry. When 2025 comes close, being updated will help companies make better decisions. When we know that by running these changes, people can make better plans, improve operations, and get new opportunities in the changing truck world.
Trends We’re Watching
In the second half of 2025, higher freight rates and limited truck capacity will likely drive more truck purchases. After freight rates soared during the pandemic, they dropped and stayed low for a while. This led to reduced demand and excess truck capacity. However, freight rates are now starting to recover in the U.S., while they continue to decline in Europe.
Aging truck fleets are also pushing demand. Many truck companies delayed buying new trucks due to high costs in the past few years. As demand picks up and truck usage increases, companies will need to replace older trucks. With interest rates expected to fall, 2025 will offer a better environment for truck purchases.
Regional Forecasts for Heavy-duty truck
Europe‘s Heavy-duty truck
Truck demand in Europe slowed down in 2024. Economic activity weakened, shipping was reduced, and due to the high capital costs, the companies delayed replacing old trucks. We hope that the EU, Norway, Switzerland and British delivery of trucks will fall to 10% -15% by the end of 2024 compared to 2023.
By 2025, the European truck market can see a decrease of up to 5%. This is due to low orders in 2024. Companies such as AB Volvo, Daimler, and Tuton have seen fewer orders for trucks in Europe. German GDP growth is expected to be lower than the eurozone average.
North America‘s Heavy-duty truck
In 2024, Class 8 truck sales in North America are expected to fall by 10-15%. In 2023, high sales were due to the pandemic for painting demand. As the supply chains become normal, manufacturers can catch the truck’s backlog. However, the ongoing shipping addiction and slow truck production in the second half of the year will lead to fewer sales in 2024.
In 2025, we predict that truck sales will increase by 5%. This is because consumer expenses will improve a bit, and interest rates will fall. Trucks are still weak, but gradually extract, and expand the demand for compensation, especially among the large fleet operators. Despite the surplus of used trucks from exiting carriers, new trucks offer better fuel efficiency and lower maintenance costs.
APAC
We expect heavy truck (HDT) sales in 2024 to fall by 2.5%-7.5%. There is an opportunity for a decline in sales in China after a large leap of 28% in 2023. The recession and weak consumer spending in the real estate sector will reduce demand for logistics and trucks.
However, the government’s efforts to encourage the replacement of trucks can help promote sales in November and December 2024. In India, after a strong benefit last year, sales will decrease a bit. Weak GDP will limit the increase, high truck prices, and demand for presidential elections. In 2025, we expect sales in APAC to grow by up to 5%, driven by increased infrastructure investment, more electrification, and the need to replace both new and old trucks. In India, new state investments in infrastructure should also boost sales.
Conclusion
Several factors are expected to meet the challenges of the sale of heavy trucks in 2025The uncertain global economy, rising fuel prices, and supply chain issues affect all the demand for trucks. At the same time, strict rules and the emergence of electric and hydrogen-operated trucks consider the choice of businesses. This recession in sales is also expected to affect production and jobs in the industry.
However, there are signs of hope. Government efforts to encourage the replacement of trucks and infrastructure investments can help support sales. Along with an increase in demand for goods, the owners of the fleet will also have to replace the old trucks. As we go to 2025, there may be some recovery in the market, especially in areas where investment in new technologies and infrastructure is increasing.
For those involved in the truck industry, it would be important to understand these trends and make smart decisions. By staying informed, companies can navigate these changes more effectively, improve their operations, and seize new opportunities in the developed market. The key will be to meet the changing demands and take advantage of the time to come.